Özet:
The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously threatened human life all over the world since
the first quarter of 2020. Hospitals have fought on the frontlines against this threat. The
aim of this study is to predict the number of monthly emergency service patients for a
public hospital. In particular, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of
emergency service patients was examined. While the data set for the period January
2012- June 2021 (114 months) is used in the analyses, two different data sets were
created for the Box- Jenkins (B-J) and Gray Prediction approaches. Then, the number
of monthly emergency service patients was predicted using the SARIMA model, GM
(1,1) and TGM. In the analyses, while examining the long-term trend of the number
emergency services patients’ using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM were used
to focus on the COVID-19 period. The findings suggest that the TGM has the most
successful results in terms of evaluation criteria
